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Wednesday, March 09, 2016

How Senator Bernie Sanders Can Win the Democratic Nomination for President


By Sujewa Ekanayake

According to my math (see details below), based on the figures available on the linked documents - wikipedia page - dem presidential primaries 2016, ny times page - primary results - if Sanders wins the rest of the states at 55% (& Clinton gets 45% of the vote) - on average - Sanders will end up with 2053.75 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1997.25 pledged delegates. Then at the convention there's 709 super delegates that each candidate can go after to try to get the 2383 total that they need to win the nomination. So Sanders has to go to the convention with the greater number of pledged delegates to justify the super delegates coming to his side for him to get the nomination. This is no doubt only 1 of many possible paths to the nomination at this point. Regardless of the path, all of them will require a lot of work by Team Sanders & supporters. But, as we saw with Michigan last night, amazing things are possible :).

The math - 
1 - total pledged delegates available - 4051, 
2 - at present sanders has 544, clinton 762 = total - 1306 delegates, 
3 - available in upcoming contests - 2745 delegates, 
4 - 55% of that number = 1509.75 delegates, 
5 - 45% of the available # = 1235.25 delegates, 
6 - 55% or 1509.75 + current sanders's 544 = 2053.75, 
7 - 45% or 1235.25 + current clinton's 762 = 1997.25 delegates, 
8 - total needed for the nomination = 2383 pledged delegates, 
9 - unpledged/super delegates = 709, 
10 - sanders needs 329.25 super delegates to win the nomination, 11 - clinton needs 385.75 super delegates to win the nomination.

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